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Prayer in school A New York Times/CBS News Poll asked the question, 鈥淒o you favor an amendment to the Constitution that would permit organized prayer in public schools?鈥 Sixty-six percent of the sample answered 鈥淵es.鈥 The article describing the poll says that it 鈥渋s based on telephone interviews conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 18 with 1664adults around the United States, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. . . . The telephone numbers were formed by random digits, thus permitting access to both listed and unlisted residential numbers.鈥 The article gives the margin of error for a 95%confidence level as 3percentage points.

(a) Explain what the margin of error means to someone who knows little statistics.

(b) State and interpret the 95% confidence interval.

(c) Interpret the confidence level.

Short Answer

Expert verified

a). On average the sample proportion will be within 3%of the true proportion in 95% of all samples.

b). We are localid="1649754733996" 95%confident that the true population proportion is between localid="1649754744695" 0.63and localid="1649754756510" 0.69.

c). On average, in localid="1649754767371" 95%of all samples the corresponding confidence interval will contain the true population proportion localid="1649754793252" p.

Step by step solution

01

Part (a) Step 1: Given Information 

The article gives the margin of error for a 95%confidence level as 3percentage points.

02

Part (a) Step 2: Explanation 

The margin of error is the amount of error that is made, on average, in estimating the population proportion pby the sample proportion p^.

Thus on average the sample proportion will be within 3%of the true proportion in 95%of all samples.

03

Part (b) Step 1: Given Information 

The article gives the margin of error for a 95%.

p^=66%=0.66

E=3%=0.03

04

Part (b) Step 2: Explanation 

The boundaries of the confidence interval is the sample proportion increased/decreased by the margin of error:

0.63=0.66-0.03=p^-E<p<p^+E=0.66+0.03=0.69

We are 95%confident that the true population proportion is between 0.63and0.69.

05

Part (c) Step 1: Given Information 

The article gives the margin of error for a 95%confidence level.

06

Part (c) Step 2: Explanation 

The confidence level is 95%.

This means: On average, in 95%of all samples the corresponding confidence interval will contain the true population proportion p.

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