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In October, \({\rm{1994}}\), a flaw in a certain Pentium chip installed in computers was discovered that could result in a wrong answer when performing a division. The manufacturer initially claimed that the chance of any particular division being incorrect was only \({\rm{1}}\) in \({\rm{9}}\) billion, so that it would take thousands of years before a typical user encountered a mistake. However, statisticians are not typical users; some modern statistical techniques are so computationally intensive that a billion divisions over a short time period is not outside the realm of possibility. Assuming that the \({\rm{1}}\) in \({\rm{9}}\) billion figure is correct and that results of different divisions are independent of one another, what is the probability that at least one error occurs in one billion divisions with this chip?

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability that at least one error occurs \({\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.105}}\).

Step by step solution

01

Concept Introduction

Independence If the probability of one event is unaffected by the occurrence or non-occurrence of the other, two events are said to be independent in probability. Consider the following example for a better understanding of this definition.

02

 Finding the probability that at least one error occurs in one billion divisions

Denote event \({\rm{A = \{ }}\) the division is incorrect \({\rm{\} }}\). We are given the probability of event \({\rm{A,P(A) = 0}}{\rm{.0000000009}}\) (there are \({\rm{9}}\) zeros) or

\({\rm{P(A) = }}\frac{{\rm{1}}}{{{\rm{9,000,000,000}}}}{\rm{ = a}}\)

one in nine billion.

Assume that the same chip has one billion divisions.

Denote events \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{i}}}{\rm{ = }}\left\{ {} \right.\)the ith division is incorrect \(\} \) from \({\rm{i = 1}}\) to \({\rm{i = }}\)billion \(\left( {{\rm{i = 1,2, \ldots ,1}}{{\rm{0}}^{\rm{9}}}} \right)\).

With this chip, we must determine the likelihood of at least one error occurring in one billion divisions or the union of the billion \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{i}}}\)events.

\(\begin{array}{l}P\left( {{A_1} \cup {A_2} \cup \ldots \cup {A_{{{10}^9}}}} \right.\\\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(1)}}} {\rm{P}}\left( {{{\left( {A_1^\prime \cap A_2^\prime \cap \ldots \cap A_{{{10}^9}}^\prime } \right)}^\prime }} \right)\\\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(2)}}} {\rm{1 - P}}\left( {A_1^\prime \cap A_2^\prime \cap {\rm{ \ldots }} \cap A_{{{10}^9}}^\prime } \right)\\\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(3)}}} {\rm{1 - P}}\left( {A_1^\prime } \right)*P\left( {A_2^\prime } \right){\rm{* \ldots *P}}\left( {A_{{{10}^9}}^\prime } \right)\\\mathop {\rm{ = }}\limits^{{\rm{(4)}}} {\rm{1 - (1 - a)*(1 - a)* \ldots *(1 - a)}}\\{\rm{ = 1 - 0}}{\rm{.895}}\\{\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.105}}{\rm{.}}\end{array}\)

03

Determine how to get solution

(1): De Morgan's Law is applied here.

(2): for any event \({\rm{A,P}}\left( {{A^\prime }} \right){\rm{ + P(A) = 1}}\),

(3): Because the events (points) are independent, we may utilise the following multiplication property.

(4): using \({\rm{A,P}}\left( {{A^\prime }} \right){\rm{ + P(A) = 1}}\).

Property of Multiplication:

For events \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{, \ldots ,}}{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{n}}}{\rm{,n}} \in {\rm{N}}\) If they are mutually independent, we say they are mutually reliant

\(P\left( {{A_{{i_1}}} \cap {A_{{i_2}}} \ldots {A_{{i_k}}}} \right) = P\left( {{A_{{i_1}}}} \right) \cdot P\left( {{A_{{i_2}}}} \right) \cdot \ldots \cdot P\left( {{A_{{i_k}}}} \right)\)

for every \({\rm{k}} \in {\rm{\{ 2,3, \ldots ,n\} }}\), and every subset of indices \({{\rm{i}}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{,}}{{\rm{i}}_{\rm{2}}}{\rm{, \ldots ,}}{{\rm{i}}_{\rm{k}}}\).

\({\rm{P}}\left( {{A_1} \cup {A_2} \cup \ldots \cup {A_{{{10}^9}}}} \right){\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.105}}.\)

Thus, the probability that at least one error occurs\({\rm{ = 0}}{\rm{.105}}\).

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A college library has five copies of a certain text onreserve. Two copies (1 and 2) are first printings, and the other three (3, 4, and 5) are second printings. A student examines these books in random order, stopping only when a second printing has been selected. One possible outcome is 5, and another is 213.

a. List the outcomes in S.

b. Let Adenote the event that exactly one book must be examined. What outcomes are in A?

c. Let Bbe the event that book 5 is the one selected. What outcomes are in B?

d. Let Cbe the event that book 1 is not examined. What outcomes are in C?

Consider purchasing a system of audio components consisting of a receiver, a pair of speakers, and a \({\rm{CD}}\) player. Let \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{1}}}\) be the event that the receiver functions properly throughout the warranty period, \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{2}}}\) be the event that the speakers function properly throughout the warranty period, and \({{\rm{A}}_{\rm{3}}}\) be the event that the \({\rm{CD}}\) player functions properly throughout the warranty period. Suppose that these events are (mutually) independent with \({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{1}}}} \right){\rm{ = }}{\rm{.95}}\), \({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{2}}}} \right){\rm{ = }}{\rm{.98}}\), and \({\rm{P}}\left( {{{\rm{A}}_{\rm{3}}}} \right){\rm{ = }}{\rm{.80}}\).

a. What is the probability that all three components function properly throughout the warranty period?

b. What is the probability that at least one component needs service during the warranty period?

c. What is the probability that all three components need service during the warranty period?

d. What is the probability that only the receiver needs service during the warranty period?

e. What is the probability that exactly one of the three components needs service during the warranty period?

f. What is the probability that all three components function properly throughout the warranty period but that at least one fails within a month after the warranty expires?

An academic department with five faculty members narrowed its choice for department head to either candidate A or candidate B. Each member then voted on a slip of paper for one of the candidates. Suppose there are actually three votes for A and two for B. If the slips are selected for tallying in random order, what is the probability that A remains ahead of B throughout the vote count (e.g., this event occurs if the selected ordering is AABAB, but not for ABBAA)?

Three molecules of type A, three of type B, three of type C, and three of type \({\rm{D}}\) are to be linked together to form a chain molecule. One such chain molecule is ABCDABCDABCD, and another is BCDDAAABDBCC.

a. How many such chain molecules are there? (Hint: If the three were distinguishable from one another— \({\rm{A1,\;A2, A3}}\)—and the were also, how many molecules would there be? How is this number reduced when the subscripts are removed from the ?)

b. Suppose a chain molecule of the type described is randomly selected. What is the probability that all three molecules of each type end up next to one another (such as in BBBAAADDDCCC)?

Use Venn diagrams to verify the following two relationships for any events Aand B (these are called De Morgan’s laws):

a.\(\left( {A \cup B} \right)' = A' \cap B'\)

b.\(\left( {A \cap B} \right)' = A' \cup B'\)

Hint:In each part, draw a diagram corresponding to the left side and another corresponding to the right side.)

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