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It is well known that a placebo, a fake medication or treatment, can sometimes have a positive effect just because patients often expect the medication or treatment to be helpful. The article "Beware the Nocebo Effect" (New York Times, Aug. 12, 2012) gave examples of a less familiar phenomenon, the tendency for patients informed of possible side effects to actually experience those side effects. The article cited a study reported in The Journal of Sexual Medicine in which a group of patients diagnosed with benign prostatic hyperplasia was randomly divided into two subgroups. One subgroup of size 55 received a compound of proven efficacy along with counseling that a potential side effect of the treatment was erectile dysfunction. The other subgroup of size 52 was given the same treatment without counseling. The percentage of the no-counseling subgroup that reported one or more sexual side effects was 15.3 %, whereas 43.6 % of the counseling subgroup reported at least one sexual side effect. State and test the appropriate hypotheses at significance level .05 to decide whether the nocebo effect is operating here. (Note: The estimated expected number of "successes" in the no-counseling sample is a bit shy of 10, but not by enough to be of great concern (some sources use a less conservative cutoff of 5 rather than 10).)

Short Answer

Expert verified

Reject null hypothesis and can conclude that there does appear to be Nocebo effect.

Step by step solution

01

To determine the large- sample test procedure

There are two subgroups. Denote with \({p_1}\)the true proportion of patients which did not receive counseling, and with \({p_2}\)the true proportion of the patients which received counseling about the possible side effect.

For the no-counseling subgroup (first subgroup) 15.3 % of 52 who received no counseling, and for the second subgroup, the subgroup of patients who received counseling 43.6% of 55 reported one or more sexual side effects.

The 15.3 % of 52 is

\(m = 52 \times \frac{{15.3}}{{100}} = 8\)

and 43.6 % of 55 is

\(n = 55 \times \frac{{43.6}}{{100}} = 24\)

This means that 8 out of 52 patients who received no counseling reported sexual side effect, and 25 out of 55 patients who received counseling reported sexual side effect.

The hypotheses of interest are \({H_0}:{p_1} - {p_2} = 0\) versus\({H_a}:{p_1} - {p_2} < 0\). Even though the samples are not large enough (and the proportions), you can use the large sample test procedure (see the hint).

A Large-Sample Test Procedure:

The two proportion z statistic - Consider test in which\({H_0}:{p_1} - {p_2} = 0\). The test statistic value for the large samples is

\(z = \frac{{{{\hat p}_1} - {{\hat p}_2}}}{{\sqrt {\hat p\hat q \times \left( {\frac{1}{m} + \frac{1}{n}} \right)} }}\)

where

\(\hat p = \frac{m}{{m + n}} \times {\hat p_1} + \frac{n}{{m + n}} \times {\hat p_2}\)

Depending on alternative hypothesis, the P value can be determined as the corresponding area under the standard normal curve. The test should be used when\(m{\hat p_1},m{\hat q_1},n{\hat p_1}\), and \(n{\hat q_1}\) are at least 10.

The estimates of the proportions are

\(\begin{array}{l}{{\hat p}_1} = \frac{8}{{52}} = 0.153\\{{\hat p}_2} = \frac{{24}}{{55}} = 0.436\end{array}\)

Compute a pooled proportion \(\widehat p\)

\(\begin{array}{c}\hat p = \frac{m}{{m + n}} \times {{\hat p}_1} + \frac{n}{{m + n}} \times {{\hat p}_2}\\ = \frac{{52}}{{52 + 55}} \times \frac{8}{{52}} + \frac{{55}}{{52 + 55}} \times \frac{{24}}{{55}}\\ = 0.299.\end{array}\)

02

Step 2:To find the two proportion z test value

The two proportion z test value is

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{{{\hat p}_1} - {{\hat p}_2}}}{{\sqrt {\hat p\hat q \times \frac{1}{m} + \frac{1}{n}} }}\\ = \frac{{0.153 - 0.436 - 0}}{{\sqrt {(0.299 \times 0.701) \times \frac{1}{{52}} + \frac{1}{{55}}} }}\\ = - 3.2\end{array}\)

The P value is the area under the standard normal curve to the left of z because the test is lower sided (one sided). Thus

\(P = P(Z \le - 3.2) = 0.007\)

which was obtained using the table in the appendix of the book. Since

\(P = 0.007 < 0.05 = \alpha \)

Reject null hypothesis

At given significance level. You can conclude that a higher proportion of men will experience erectile dysfunction if they received consulting about the side effect of the BPH treatment, than if there were no consulting about the side effects.

Or there does appear to be nocebo effect.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Olestra is a fat substitute approved by the FDA for use in snack foods. Because there have been anecdotal reports of gastrointestinal problems associated with olestra consumption, a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled experiment was carried out to compare olestra potato chips to regular potato chips with respect to GI symptoms ("Gastrointestinal Symptoms Following Consumption of Olestra or Regular Triglyceride Potato Chips," J. of the Amer. Med. Assoc., 1998: 150-152). Among 529 individuals in the TG control group, 17.6 % experienced an adverse GI event, whereas among the 563 individuals in the olestra treatment group, 15.8 % experienced such an event.

a. Carry out a test of hypotheses at the 5 % significance level to decide whether the incidence rate of GI problems for those who consume olestra chips according to the experimental regimen differs from the incidence rate for the TG control treatment.

b. If the true percentages for the two treatments were 15 % and 20 %, respectively, what sample sizes

\((m = n\)) would be necessary to detect such a difference with probability 90?

a. Show for the upper-tailed test with \({\sigma _1}\) and \({\sigma _2}\)known that as either\(m\) or\(n\) increases, \(\beta \)decreases when \({\mu _1} - {\mu _2} > {\Delta _0}\).

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Consider the pooled\(t\)variable

\(T = \frac{{(\bar X - \bar Y) - \left( {{\mu _1} - {\mu _2}} \right)}}{{{S_p}\sqrt {\frac{1}{m} + \frac{1}{n}} }}\)

which has a\(t\)distribution with\(m + n - 2\)df when both population distributions are normal with\({\sigma _1} = {\sigma _2}\)(see the Pooled\(t\)Procedures subsection for a description of\({S_p}\)).

a. Use this\(t\)variable to obtain a pooled\(t\)confidence interval formula for\({\mu _1} - {\mu _2}\).

b. A sample of ultrasonic humidifiers of one particular brand was selected for which the observations on maximum output of moisture (oz) in a controlled chamber were\(14.0, 14.3, 12.2\), and 15.1. A sample of the second brand gave output values\(12.1, 13.6\),\(11.9\), and\(11.2\)("Multiple Comparisons of Means Using Simultaneous Confidence Intervals," J. of Quality Technology, \(1989: 232 - 241\)). Use the pooled\(t\)formula from part (a) to estimate the difference between true average outputs for the two brands with a\(95\% \)confidence interval.

c. Estimate the difference between the two\(\mu \)'s using the two-sample\(t\)interval discussed in this section, and compare it to the interval of part (b).

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YF:\(29,34,33,27,28,32,31,34,32,27\)

OF:\(18,15,23,13,12\)

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  1. Does it appear that the true proportion of noncontaminated Perdue broilers differs from that for the Tyson brand? Carry out a test of hypotheses using a significance level .01.
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