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Three couples and two single individuals have been invited to an investment seminar and have agreed to attend. Suppose the probability that any particular couple or individual arrives late is .4 (a couple will travel together in the same vehicle, so either both people will be on time or else both will arrive late). Assume that different couples and individuals are on time or late independently of one another. Let X = the number ofpeople who arrive late for the seminar.

a. Determine the probability mass function of X. (Hint: label the three couples #1, #2, and #3 and the two individuals #4 and #5.)

b. Obtain the cumulative distribution function of X, and use it to calculate\(P\left( {2 \le X \le 6} \right)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified

a.

X

P(X)

0

0.0776

1

0.1037

2

0.1901

3

0.2074

4

0.1728

5

0.1382

6

0.0693

7

0.0307

8

0.0102

b.

X

F(X)

0

0.0776

1

0.1813

2

0.3714

3

0.5788

4

0.7516

5

0.8898

6

0.9591

7

0.9898

8

1

The required probability is 0.7778.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

Three couples and two single individuals have been invited to an investment seminar. Let X to be the number of people who arrive late for the seminar.

The probability of any individual or couples arrives late at 0.40. It can be represented by p. Similarly, probability of not arriving late is represented by q. So, the probability of arrival on time of couple or an individual is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}q &= 1 - p\\ &= 1 - 0.40\\ &= 0.60\end{aligned}\)

02

Determine the probability mass function of X

It is given that the random variableX to be the number of people who arrive late for the seminar.

So, the probability that no one is late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 0} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {No\,one\,is\,late} \right) &= P\left( {X = 0} \right)\\ &= {\left( {0.6} \right)^5}\\ &= 0.0778\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that one individual is late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 1} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {one\,individual\,late} \right) &= P\left( {X = 1} \right)\\ &= {}^2{C_1}{\left( {0.40} \right)^1}{\left( {0.60} \right)^{5 - 1}}\\ &= \frac{{2!}}{{1!\left( {2 - 1} \right)!}} \times \left( {0.40} \right) \times {\left( {0.60} \right)^4}\\ &= 0.1037\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that two individuals or one couple are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 2} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {two\,individual\,late} \right) + P\left( {1\,couple} \right) &= P\left( {X = 2} \right)\\ &= {\left( {0.40} \right)^2}{\left( {0.60} \right)^3} + {}^3{C_1}{\left( {0.40} \right)^1}{\left( {0.60} \right)^{5 - 1}}\\ &= {\left( {0.40} \right)^2}{\left( {0.60} \right)^3} + \frac{{3!}}{{1!\left( {3 - 1} \right)!}} \times \left( {0.40} \right) \times {\left( {0.60} \right)^4}\\ &= 0.1901\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that one individual and one couple are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 3} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {1\,\,individual\,late} \right)\,\,and\,P\left( {1\,\,couple} \right) &= P\left( {X = 3} \right)\\ &= \left( {{}^2{C_1}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^1}} \right)\left( {{}^3{C_1}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^1}{{\left( {0.60} \right)}^3}} \right)\\ &= 0.2074\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that two individual and one couple are late or 2 couples are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 4} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {2\,\,individuals\,\,and\,\,1\,\,couple\,late} \right)\,\, + \,P\left( {2\,\,couples} \right) &= P\left( {X = 4} \right)\\ &= \left( \begin{array}{l}{\left( {0.4} \right)^2}\left( {{}^3{C_1}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^1}{{\left( {0.60} \right)}^2}} \right)\\ + \left( {{}^3{C_2}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^2}{{\left( {0.60} \right)}^3}} \right)\end{array} \right)\\ &= 0.1728\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that one individual and two couples are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 5} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {1\,\,individual\,and\,2\,\,couples\,late} \right)\,\,& = P\left( {X = 5} \right)\\ &= \left( {{}^2{C_1}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^1}} \right)\left( {{}^3{C_2}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^2}{{\left( {0.60} \right)}^4}} \right)\\ &= 0.1382\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that two individuals and two couples are late or 3 couples are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 6} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {2\,individuals\,and\,2\,couples\,late} \right)\, + P\left( {3\,couples} \right) &= P\left( {X = 6} \right)\\\left( \begin{array}{l}{\left( {0.4} \right)^2}\left( {{}^3{C_2}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^2}\left( {0.60} \right)} \right)\\ + {\left( {0.40} \right)^3}{\left( {0.60} \right)^2}\end{array} \right)\\ &= 0.0691\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, the probability that one individual and three couples are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 7} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {1\,\,{\rm{individual}}\,\,{\rm{and}}\,\,3\,{\rm{couples}}\,{\rm{late}}} \right)\, &= P\left( {X = 7} \right)\\ &= \left( {{}^2{C_1}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^1}{{\left( {0.40} \right)}^3}\left( {0.60} \right)} \right)\\ &= 0.0307\end{aligned}\)

Finally, the probability that two individuals and three couples are late i.e.\(P\left( {X = 8} \right)\)is computed as:

\(\begin{aligned} P\left( {all\,late} \right)\, &= P\left( {X = 8} \right)\\ &= {\left( {0.40} \right)^5}\\ &= 0.0102\end{aligned}\)

The probability mass function of X is given as:

X

P(X)

0

0.0776

1

0.1037

2

0.1901

3

0.2074

4

0.1728

5

0.1382

6

0.0693

7

0.0307

8

0.0102

03

Determine the cumulative distribution function of X

From the problem, the cdf\(F\left( {X = x} \right)\) can be defined as,

\(F\left( {X = x} \right) = P\left( {X \le x} \right)\)

First, compute\(F\left( 0 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 0} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 0} \right)\\ &= P\left( {X = 0} \right)\\ &= 0.0776\end{aligned}\)

Then, compute\(F\left( 1 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 1} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 1} \right)\\ &= \left( {P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037} \right)\\ &= 0.1813\end{aligned}\)

Then, compute\(F\left( 2 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 2} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 2} \right)\\ &= \left( {P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right)} \right)\\&= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901} \right)\\ &= 0.3714\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, compute\(F\left( 3 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 3} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 3} \right)\\ &= \left( {P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right) + P\left( {X = 3} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901 + 0.2074} \right)\\ &= 0.5788\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, compute\(F\left( 4 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned}F\left( {X = 4} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 4} \right)\\ &= \left( {P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right) + P\left( {X = 3} \right) + P\left( {X = 4} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901 + 0.2074 + 0.1728} \right)\\ &= 0.7516\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, compute\(F\left( 5 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 5} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 5} \right)\\ &= \left( {P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right) + P\left( {X = 3} \right) + P\left( {X = 4} \right) + P\left( {X = 5} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901 + 0.2074 + 0.1728 + 0.1382} \right)\\ &= 0.8898\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, compute\(F\left( 6 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 6} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 6} \right)\\ &= \left( {P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right) + P\left( {X = 3} \right) + P\left( {X = 4} \right) + P\left( {X = 5} \right) + P\left( {X = 6} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901 + 0.2074 + 0.1728 + 0.1382 + 0.0693} \right)\\ &= 0.9591\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, compute\(F\left( 7 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 7} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 7} \right)\\ &= \left( \begin{array}{l}P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right) + P\left( {X = 3} \right)\\ + P\left( {X = 4} \right) + P\left( {X = 5} \right) + P\left( {X = 6} \right) + P\left( {X = 6} \right)\end{array} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901 + 0.2074 + 0.1728 + 0.1382 + 0.0693 + 0.0307} \right)\\ &= 0.9898\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, compute\(F\left( 8 \right)\) using the above formula:

\(\begin{aligned} F\left( {X = 8} \right) &= P\left( {X \le 8} \right)\\ &= \left( \begin{array}{l}P\left( {X = 0} \right) + P\left( {X = 1} \right) + P\left( {X = 2} \right) + P\left( {X = 3} \right) + P\left( {X = 4} \right)\\ + P\left( {X = 5} \right) + P\left( {X = 6} \right) + P\left( {X = 7} \right) + P\left( {X = 8} \right)\end{array} \right)\\ &= \left( \begin{array}{l}0.0776 + 0.1037 + 0.1901 + 0.2074 + 0.1728\\ + 0.1382 + 0.0693 + 0.0307 + 0.0102\end{array} \right)\\ &= 1\end{aligned}\)

The cumulative distribution functionis given as:

X

F(X)

0

0.0776

1

0.1813

2

0.3714

3

0.5788

4

0.7516

5

0.8898

6

0.9591

7

0.9898

8

1

04

Calculate\(P\left( {2 \le X \le 6} \right)\) using cumulative distribution function table

The probability can be computed as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {2 \le X \le 6} \right) &= F\left( 6 \right) - F\left( 1 \right)\\ &= 09591 - 0.1813\\ &= 0.7778\end{aligned}\)

Thus, the required probability is 0.7778.

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