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A library subscribes to two different weekly news magazines, each of which is supposed to arrive in Wednesday’s mail. In actuality, each one may arrive on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, or Saturday. Suppose the two arrive independently of one another, and for each one\(P\left( {Wed.} \right) = 0.3\), \(P\left( {Thurs.} \right) = 0.4\), \(P\left( {Fri.} \right) = 0.2\), and\(P\left( {Sat.} \right) = 0.1\). Let Y = the number of days beyond Wednesday that it takes for both magazines to arrive (so possible Y values are 0, 1, 2, or 3). Compute the pmf of Y. (Hint: There are 16 possible outcomes; \(Y\left( {W,W} \right) = {\bf{0}}\),\(Y\left( {F,Th} \right) = 2\), and so on.)

Short Answer

Expert verified

Y

P(Y)

0

0.09

1

0.40

2

0.32

3

0.19

Step by step solution

01

Given information

From Wednesday through Saturday, a library subscribes to two separate weekly news publications, each of which has a high probability of arriving late.

Each individual probability is given as:


\(\begin{array}{l}P\left( {{\rm{Wed}}} \right) = 0.30\\P\left( {{\rm{Thurs}}} \right) = 0.40\\P\left( {{\rm{Fri}}} \right) = 0.20\\P\left( {{\rm{Sat}}} \right) = 0.10\end{array}\)

02

Obtain the sample space of an experiment

Each magazine can arrive between Wednesday to Saturday. So, the possible number of outcomes are\(\left\{ {{\rm{Wed,Thurs,Fri,Sat}}} \right\}\).

If there are two magazines, then the possible number of outcomes is\({4^2} = 16\).

Let denote Wed as W, Thurs as T, Fri as F and Sat as S. The sample space S is given as:

\(S = \left\{ \begin{array}{l}\left( {W,W} \right),\left( {W,T} \right),\left( {W,F} \right),\left( {W,S} \right)\\\left( {T,W} \right),\left( {T,T} \right),\left( {T,F} \right),\left( {T,S} \right)\\\left( {F,W} \right),\left( {F,T} \right),\left( {F,F} \right),\left( {F,S} \right)\\\left( {S,W} \right),\left( {S,T} \right),\left( {S,F} \right),\left( {S,S} \right)\end{array} \right\}\)

03

Step 3:Identify the associated value of random variable Y

Consider Y to be the number of days beyond Wednesday that it takes for both magazines to arrive.

The value associated with Y are as follows:

\(\begin{array}{l}Y\left( {W,W} \right) = 0\\Y\left( {W,T} \right) = 1\\Y\left( {W,F} \right) = 2\\Y\left( {W,S} \right) = 3\end{array}\)

\(\begin{array}{l}Y\left( {T,W} \right) = 1\\Y\left( {T,T} \right) = 1\\Y\left( {T,F} \right) = 2\\Y\left( {T,S} \right) = 3\end{array}\)

\(\begin{array}{l}Y\left( {F,W} \right) = 2\\Y\left( {F,T} \right) = 2\\Y\left( {F,F} \right) = 2\\Y\left( {F,S} \right) = 3\end{array}\)

\(\begin{array}{l}Y\left( {S,W} \right) = 3\\Y\left( {S,T} \right) = 3\\Y\left( {S,F} \right) = 3\\Y\left( {S,S} \right) = 3\end{array}\)

From the above list of values, the associated values of random variable Y are\(\left\{ {0,1,2,3} \right\}\).

04

Step 4:Find the probability mass function of Y

As Y is a random variable that the number of days beyond Wednesday that it takes for both magazines to arrive, when\(Y = 0\) it means the maximum number of days is 0.

The possible pair is \(\left\{ {\left( {W,W} \right)} \right\}\).

So, its probability can be calculated as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {Y = 0} \right) &= P\left( {WW} \right)\\ &= 0.30 \times 0.30\\ &= 0.09\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, when\(Y = 1\) it means the maximum number of days is 1.

The possible pairs are\(\left\{ {\left( {W,T} \right),\left( {T,W} \right),\left( {T,T} \right)} \right\}\).

So, its probability is calculated as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {Y = 1} \right) &= \left( {P\left( {W,T} \right) + P\left( {T,W} \right) + P\left( {T,T} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {\left( {0.30} \right)\left( {0.40} \right) + \left( {0.30} \right)\left( {0.40} \right) + \left( {0.40} \right)\left( {0.40} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.12 + 0.12 + 0.16} \right)\\ &= 0.40\end{aligned}\)

Similarly, when\(Y = 2\) it means the maximum number of days is 2.

The possible pairs are\(\left\{ {\left( {W,F} \right),\left( {F,W} \right),\left( {T,F} \right),\left( {F,T} \right),\left( {F,F} \right)} \right\}\).

So, its probability is calculated as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {Y = 2} \right) &= \left( {P\left( {W,F} \right) + P\left( {F,W} \right) + P\left( {T,F} \right) + P\left( {F,T} \right) + P\left( {F,F} \right)} \right)\\ &= \left( \begin{array}{l}\left( {0.30} \right)\left( {0.20} \right) + \left( {0.20} \right)\left( {0.30} \right) + \left( {0.40} \right)\left( {0.20} \right)\\ + \left( {0.20} \right)\left( {0.40} \right) + \left( {0.20} \right)\left( {0.40} \right)\end{array} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.06 + 0.06 + 0.08 + 0.08 + 0.08} \right)\\ &= 0.32\end{aligned}\)

Finally, when\(Y = 3\) it means the maximum number of days is 3.

The possible pairs are\(\left\{ {\left( {W,S} \right),\left( {T,S} \right),\left( {S,S} \right),\left( {F,S} \right),\left( {S,W} \right),\left( {S,F} \right),\left( {S,T} \right)} \right\}\).

So, its probability is calculated as:

\(\begin{aligned}P\left( {Y = 3} \right) &= \left( \begin{array}{l}P\left( {W,S} \right) + P\left( {T,S} \right) + P\left( {S,S} \right) + P\left( {F,S} \right)\\ + P\left( {S,W} \right) + P\left( {S,F} \right) + P\left( {S,T} \right)\end{array} \right)\\ &= \left( \begin{array}{l}\left( {0.30} \right)\left( {0.10} \right) + \left( {0.40} \right)\left( {0.10} \right) + \left( {0.10} \right)\left( {0.10} \right) + \left( {0.20} \right)\left( {0.10} \right)\\ + \left( {0.10} \right)\left( {0.30} \right) + \left( {0.10} \right)\left( {0.20} \right) + \left( {0.10} \right)\left( {0.40} \right)\end{array} \right)\\ &= \left( {0.03 + 0.04 + 0.01 + 0.02 + 0.03 + 0.02 + 0.04} \right)\\ &= 0.19\end{aligned}\)

The probability mass function of Y is given as:

Y

P(Y)

0

0.09

1

0.40

2

0.32

3

0.19

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