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The following observations are on stopping distance (ft) of a particular truck at \(20mph\) under specified experimental conditions (鈥淓xperimental Measurement of the Stopping Performance of a Tractor-Semitrailer from Multiple Speeds,鈥 NHTSA, DOT HS 811 488, June 2011):

\(32.1 30.6 31.4 30.4 31.0 31.9\)

The cited report states that under these conditions, the maximum allowable stopping distance is \(30\). A normal probability plot validates the assumption that stopping distance is normally distributed.

a. Does the data suggest that true average stopping distance exceeds this maximum value? Test the appropriate hypotheses using \(\alpha = .01\).

b. Determine the probability of a type II error when a 5 .01, \(\sigma = .65\), and the actual value of \(\mu \) is \(31\). Repeat this for \(\mu = 32\) (use either statistical software or Table A.17).

c. Repeat (b) using \(\sigma = .80\) and compare to the results of (b).

d. What sample size would be necessary to have \(\alpha = .01\) and \(\beta = .10\) when \(\mu = 31\) and \(\sigma = .65\)?

Short Answer

Expert verified

(a) The average stopping distance exceeds\(30\)is supported by appropriate evidence.

(b) The probability of a type II error is:
\(\begin{array}{l}\mu = 31:P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = 7.49\% \\\mu = 32:P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = 0\end{array}\)

(c) The probability of a type II error is:
\(\begin{array}{l}\mu = 31:P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = 23.27\% \\\mu = 32:P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = 0\end{array}\)

(d) The sample size is \(n \approx 6\).

Step by step solution

01

Define p-value in hypothesis testing.

The null hypothesis states that the population mean is equal to the value mentioned in the claim. If the null hypothesis is the claim, then the alternative hypothesis states the opposite of the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{l}{H_0}:\mu = 0\\{H_a}:\mu \ne 0\end{array}\)

The formula for the value of the test statistic is given by, \(t = \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\).

02

Determine the mean and the standard deviation.

The mean is the ration of sum of all values and the total number of values.

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar x = \frac{{32.1 + 30.6 + 31.4 + 30.4 + 31 + 31.9}}{6}\\ = \frac{{187.4}}{6}\\ \approx 31.2333\end{array}\)

The square of the variance is the standard deviation.

\(\begin{array}{c}s = \sqrt {\frac{{{{(32.1 - 31.2333)}^2} + \ldots . + {{(31.9 - 31.2333)}^2}}}{{6 - 1}}} \\ \approx 0.6890\end{array}\)

03

Test the appropriate hypotheses.

(a)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}n = 6\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Claim that the average stopping distance exceeds\(30\). The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

The value of the test statistic:

\(\begin{array}{c}t = \frac{{\bar x - {\mu _0}}}{{s/\sqrt n }}\\ = \frac{{31.2333 - 30}}{{0.6890/\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx 4.385\end{array}\)

The P-value is the chance of getting the test statistic's result, or a number that is more severe. The P-value is the number (or interval) in the column header of the T table in the appendix that contains the t-value in the row\(\begin{array}{c}df = n - 1\\ = 6 - 1\\ = 5\end{array}\)for the student.

\(0.001 < P < 0.005\)

As the P-value is smaller than the significance level, so the null hypothesis is rejected.

\(P < 0.01 \Rightarrow {\rm{Reject }}{H_0}\)

Hence, the average stopping distance exceeds \(30\) is supported by appropriate evidence.

04

Determine the probability of a Type II error.

(b)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}\sigma = 0.65\\n = 6\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Claim that the average stopping distance exceeds\(30\). The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

\({\mu _A} = 31\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(1 - \alpha = 0.99\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 2.33\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar x = \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ = 30 + 2.33\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx 30.6183\end{array}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ = \frac{{30.6183 - 31}}{{0.65/\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx - 1.44\end{array}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{c}P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = P(Z < - 1.44)\\ = 0.0749\\ = 7.49\% \end{array}\)

Now,\({\mu _A} = 32.\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ = \frac{{30.6183 - 32}}{{0.65/\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx - 5.21\end{array}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{c}P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = P(Z < - 5.21)\\ \approx 0\end{array}\)

05

Determine the probability of a Type II error.

(c)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}\sigma = 0.80\\n = 6\\\alpha = 0.01\end{array}\)

Claim that the average stopping distance exceeds\(30\). The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

\({\mu _A} = 31\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(1 - \alpha = 0.99\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 2.33\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar x = \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ = 30 + 2.33\frac{{0.80}}{{\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx 30.7610\end{array}\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ = \frac{{30.7610 - 31}}{{0.80/\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx - 0.73\end{array}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{c}P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = P(Z < - 0.73)\\ = 0.2327\\ = 23.27\% \end{array}\)

Now,\({\mu _A} = 32.\)

The z-value is the sample mean divided by the standard deviation, after subtracting the population mean (alternative mean).

\(\begin{array}{c}z = \frac{{\bar x - \mu }}{{\sigma /\sqrt n }}\\ = \frac{{30.7610 - 32}}{{0.80/\sqrt 6 }}\\ \approx - 3.79\end{array}\)

When the null hypothesis is false, the probability of making a type II error is the probability of not rejecting the null hypothesis. Using the normal probability table in the appendix, calculate the chances of failing to reject the null hypothesis.

\(\begin{array}{c}P({\rm{ Type II error }}) = P(Z < - 3.79)\\ \approx 0\end{array}\)

06

Determine the sample size.

(d)

Let the given be:

\(\begin{array}{l}{\mu _A} = 31\\\sigma = 0.65\\n = ?\\\alpha = 0.01\\\beta = 0.10\end{array}\)

Claim that the average stopping distance exceeds\(30\). The given claim is either the null hypothesis or the alternative hypothesis.

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(1 - \alpha = 0.99\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = 2.33\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar x = \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ = 30 + 2.33\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt n }}\end{array}\)

Using the normal probability table in the appendix, find the z-score corresponding to a probability of \(\beta = 0.10\) (Note: take the complement because the test is right-sided):

\(z = - 1.28\)

The population mean (of the hypothesis) is increased by the product of the z-score and the standard deviation to get the sample mean:

\(\begin{array}{c}\bar x = \mu + z\frac{\sigma }{{\sqrt n }}\\ = 31 - 1.28\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt n }}\end{array}\)

The two expressions for the sample mean must be equal. Solve for\(n\):

\(\begin{array}{c}30 + 2.33\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt n }} = 31 - 1.28\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt n }}\\30 = 31 - 3.61\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt n }}\\ - 1 = - 3.61\frac{{0.65}}{{\sqrt n }}\\ - \sqrt n = - 3.61(0.65)\\\sqrt n = 2.3465\\n = {2.3465^2}\\ = 5.50606225\\n \approx 6\end{array}\)

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