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In Exercises 21鈥24, use these results from the 鈥1-Panel-THC鈥 test for marijuana use, which is provided by the company Drug Test Success: Among 143 subjects with positive test results, there are 24 false positive results; among 157 negative results, there are 3 false negative results. (Hint: Construct a table similar to Table 4-1, which is included with the Chapter Problem.)

Testing for Marijuana Use If one of the test subjects is randomly selected, find the probability that the subject tested positive or did not use marijuana.

Short Answer

Expert verified

The probability of selecting a subject who tested positive or did not use marijuana is equal to 0.99.

Step by step solution

01

Given information

The number of positive and negative drug test results of the subjects is provided.

The frequencies are categorized as true and false results.

02

Addition rule of probability

For two events A and B, the probability of occurrence of only A, only B, or both is computed as shown below:

PAorB=PA+PB-PAandB

Here, the probability of occurrence of both A and B is given by PAandB.

03

Calculation

The table below shows the number of subjects that fall into each category:


True Result

False Result

Total

Subject Tested Positive

143 鈥 24 =119

24

143

Subject Tested Negative

157 鈥 3 = 154

3

157

Total

273

27

Grand Total=300

The total number of subjects is equal to 300.

Let E be the event of selecting a subject who tested positive.

Let F be the event of selecting a subject who did not use marijuana.

The number of subjects who tested positive is equal to 143.

The number of subjects who did not use marijuana is equal to:

FalsePositive+TrueNegative=24+154=178

So, the corresponding probabilities are:

PE=143300PF=178300

The number of subjects who tested positive but did not use marijuana is equal to the number of subjects who tested false positive. Thus, it is equal to 24.

PEandF=24300

The probability of selecting a subject who tested positive or did not use marijuana is equal to:

PEorF=PE+PF-PEandF=143300+178300-24300=297300=0.99

Therefore, the probability of selecting a subject who tested positive or did not use marijuana is equal to 0.99.

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Negative Test Result

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Subject Uses Drugs

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5 (False Negative)

Subject Does Not Use drugs

25 (False Positive)

480 (True Negative)

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