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Let ϕbe the standard normal distribution function, and let X be a normal random variable with mean μ and variance 1. We want to find E[ ϕ(X)]. To do so, let Z be a standard normal random variable that is independent of X, and let

I=1, â¶Ä…â¶Ä…â¶Ä…ifZ<X0, â¶Ä…â¶Ä…â¶Ä…ifZ≥X

(a) Show that E[I∣X=x]=Φ(x).

(b) Show that E[Φ(X)]=P{Z<X}.

(c) Show that E[Φ(X)]=Φμ2.

Hint: What is the distribution of X-Z?

The preceding comes up in statistics. Suppose you are about to observe the value of a random variable X that is normally distributed with an unknown mean μ and variance 1, and suppose that you want to test the hypothesis that the mean μ is greater than or equal to 0. Clearly you would want to reject this hypothesis if X is sufficiently small. If it results that X = x, then the p-value of the hypothesis that the mean is greater than or equal to 0 is defined to be the probability that X would be as small as x if μ were equal to 0 (its smallest possible value if the hypothesis were true). (A small p-value is taken as an indication that the hypothesis is probably false.) Because X has a standard normal distribution when μ = 0, the p-value that results when X = x is ϕ (x). Therefore, the preceding shows that the expected p-value that results when the true mean is μ is φμ2 .

Short Answer

Expert verified

The answers are,

  1. It has been now shown that theE[I∣X=x]=Φ(x).
  2. It has been shown that the E[Φ(X)]=P{Z<X}.
  3. It has been shown that theE[Φ(X)]=Φμ2

Step by step solution

01

Given information (Part a)

Ï•=standard normal distribution function.

X=normal random variable with mean μand variance 2

role="math" localid="1647418706310" Z=standard normal random variable that is independent of X

I=1,ifZ<X0,ifZ≥X

02

Solution (Part a)

We are going to show that E[I∣X=x]=Φ(x)

So,

E[I∣X=x]=(1×P{Z<X∣X=x})+(0×P{Z≥X∣X=x})

=P{Z<x∣X=x}

=P{Z<x}

Now take the given definition as Φ(x)is standard normal distribution function, one has that:

So that,

P{Z<x}=Φ(x)

E[I∣X=x]=Φ(x)

03

Final answer (Part a)

It has been now shown that theE[I∣X=x]=Φ(x).

04

Given information (Part b)

Ï•=standard normal distribution function.

X=normal random variable with mean μand variance 2

Z=standard normal random variable that is independent of X

I=1,ifZ<X0,ifZ≥X

05

Solution (Part b)

Here we need to show that E[Φ(x)]=P{Z<X}

From the above result,

E[I∣X]=Φ(X)

Moreover, one has the following relations:

E[I]=E[E[I∣X]]

=E[Φ(X)]−−−−−(1)

So,

E[I]=(P{I=1}×1)+(0×P{I=0})

=P{Z<X}×1+P{Z≥X}×0

=P{Z<X}−−−−−−(2)

Now we need to combine The equation (1) and (2) That will get.

E[Φ(X)]=P{Z<X}

06

Final answer (Part b)

Now it has been shown thatE[Φ(X)]=P{Z<X}.

07

Given information (Part c)

Ï•=standard normal distribution function.

X=normal random variable with mean μand variance 2

Z=standard normal random variable that is independent of X

I=1,ifZ<X0,ifZ≥X

08

Solution (Part c)

We need to show that E[Φ(x)]=Φμ2

If, X-Z is normal with mean μand variance 2 .

P{X>Z}=P{X−Z>0}

=PX−Z−μ2>−μ2

=1−Φ−μ2

=Φμ2

Therefore the result is,

E[Φ(X)]=Φμ2

09

Final answer (Part c)

Now it has been shown thatE[Φ(X)]=Φμ2.

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